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Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action

The succession of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are conducted: positive announcements are delivered from various governments. Considerable effort is allocated on containing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "peace".

Nocturnal Warfare

As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from enemy soil, a capability afforded by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been scrambled to intercept incoming guided weapons flew past – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by Western partners.

Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: multiple launches deployed against a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely delivered by Western nations. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly transforms into sober acceptance: maybe the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and another blackout.

Continuous Dangers

Soon after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a drone close by, part of a rapid response unit – most likely Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its target.

Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: several casualties, damage and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a reliance that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to fill in the immediate future.

Failed Diplomacy

The comprehensive proposal from Washington provoked deep reactions, debate and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.

Every new proposal from American administration follows the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This cycle will, no doubt, continue.

Tactical Assessments

It is convenient to criticize specific actors of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington operates on a assumption well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government believes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does little to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the near future.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Moscow is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing lives and land but preventing a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its benefit.

Present Conditions

Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: personal goals to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not switch to internal issues. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These two forces are influencing discussions.

Assessment and Future

It took a just a single week to terminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.

While new proposals based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on sustained allied backing.